Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2678 GP	H239 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3125 GP · 2y
TOI	12.62	12.66	12.37	12.45	11.72
PP TOI	1.15	1.10	1.13	1.07	0.93
G	18	17	15	19	19
A	14	17	12	22	13
PTS	32	34	26	41	32
PPP	3	4	2	6	3
SOG	136	134	123	144	136
PIM	15	11	21	-0	13
Hits	70	79	69	88	74
Blocks	38	38	34	42	37

Sample: 78 GP · 874 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingF · league-wide (of 575)

344Dalibor Dvorsky-25

345Casey Mittelstadt-25

346Nino Niederreiter-25

347Nicholas Robertson-25

348Connor Zary-25

349Braeden Bowman-25

350Joel Armia-25

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 2 pace in the second half after 6 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 12 pace in the second half after 22 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

iHDCF/60

iHDCF/60 ran 57% above his 3-year rate last season (3.84 against 2.44).

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 19% above his 3-year rate last season (1.10 against 0.93).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets87% match
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken84% match
Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders83% match
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights81% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nicholas Robertson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, PPP
Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, PIM
Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.62	12.66	11.72	+8%
5v5 TOI	11.18	11.21	10.61	+6%
PP TOI	1.15	1.10	0.93	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.62: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.18: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.15: new coach (Jim Hiller) — late-year 1.2 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.82	7.82	8.59	-9%
G/60	1.00	0.96	1.17	-18%
iSH%	12.80	12.28	13.66	-10%
ixG/60	–	0.86	0.67	+28%
iCF/60	–	13.52	15.92	-15%
iSCF/60	–	8.30	7.19	+15%
iHDCF/60	–	3.84	2.44	+57%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.86 (83rd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.67 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.99 (1st half) to 0.72 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.81	10.23	8.80	+16%
IPP	72.50	72.83	71.33	+2%
1A/60	0.45	0.48	0.45	+6%
2A/60	0.29	0.41	0.27	+52%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.2%, IPP 72.8%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.84 vs 2.44) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.41 vs 3-yr 0.27) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.15	1.10	0.93	+19%
PP iSH%	18.30	16.63	18.77	-11%
PP SOG/60	6.82	8.36	8.29	+1%
PP ixG/60	–	1.28	1.62	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.2 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.93	0.69	0.90	-24%
Hits/60	4.42	5.01	4.88	+3%
Blks/60	2.40	2.47	2.53	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.36/60 and 2nd-half 4.30 below the 5.01 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.42/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.88 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.77/60 and 2nd-half 2.19 below the 2.47 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.40/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.53 3-yr mark.