Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2665 GP	H242 GP	H123 GP	Prev 3222 GP · 3y
TOI	14.34	14.26	14.12	13.80	14.86
PP TOI	1.39	1.44	1.48	1.38	1.19
G	15	16	21	8	17
A	27	34	37	29	21
PTS	42	50	58	37	38
PPP	6	10	10	11	4
SOG	107	98	85	123	123
PIM	25	18	16	21	26
Hits	40	38	35	43	44
Blocks	22	15	18	11	25

Sample: 65 GP · 816 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

189Victor Olofsson-27

190Ozzy Wiesblatt-27

191Brandon Tanev-28

192Kaapo Kakko-28

193Kasperi Kapanen-28

194Michael Amadio-28

195Nicolas Roy-28

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindModest 5v5 lift for Seattle's young forwards; cleaner PP structure. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 21 pace in the second half after 8 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (6.22 in the first half, 24.19 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 40% below last season, 10 to 6.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 55% above his 3-year rate last season (0.96 against 0.62).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres86% match
Zach BensonLW · Buffalo Sabres82% match
Pavel ZachaC,LW · Boston Bruins82% match
Luke EvangelistaRW · Nashville Predators82% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Kaapo Kakko is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Duckscovers 3
fills: PIM, Hits, SOG
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lane Lambert (SEA)

Last year: Lane Lambert full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.34	14.26	14.86	-4%
5v5 TOI	12.69	12.56	13.05	-4%
PP TOI	1.39	1.44	1.19	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 16 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.34: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.69: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.39: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.99	5.14	5.88	-13%
G/60	0.67	0.73	0.71	+4%
iSH%	13.36	14.20	11.98	+19%
ixG/60	–	0.59	0.60	-2%
iCF/60	–	9.85	11.23	-12%
iSCF/60	–	5.00	5.69	-12%
iHDCF/60	–	2.57	2.75	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 16 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 14.2% vs a 12.0% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.59 (46th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 13.4% pulls the goal rate ~9% down.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 5.14 vs 5.88) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.87	12.01	8.53	+41%
IPP	71.51	73.79	64.59	+14%
1A/60	0.85	0.96	0.62	+55%
2A/60	0.44	0.59	0.33	+79%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 16 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.0% vs a 8.5% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.39	1.44	1.19	+21%
PP iSH%	20.77	28.57	15.12	+89%
PP SOG/60	5.06	4.48	7.47	-40%
PP ixG/60	–	1.43	1.32	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 16 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.4 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (28.6% vs 15.1% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.43) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.05	1.03	1.12	-8%
Hits/60	2.20	2.13	2.44	-13%
Blks/60	1.04	0.88	1.29	-32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 16 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.41/60 and 2nd-half 2.01 below the 2.13 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.20/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.44 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 0.94/60 and 2nd-half 1.02 vs a 0.88 season rate (1.29 3-yr) (2nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.04/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.