Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2623 GP	H220 GP	H13 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	10.41	10.27	10.55	–	–
PP TOI	0.02	0.02	0.02	–	–
G	4	4	5	–	–
A	7	7	10	–	–
PTS	11	11	14	–	–
PPP	0	0	0	–	–
SOG	52	50	51	–	–
PIM	8	7	10	–	–
Hits	168	164	161	–	–
Blocks	47	46	48	–	–

Sample: 23 GP · 199 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

227Hendrix Lapierre-57

228Kevin Rooney-57

229Jagger Firkus-58

230Jacob Quillan-58

231Nathan Gaucher-59

232Sam Lafferty-59

233Fedor Svechkov-60

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Bottom of the league

5v5 TOI

5v5 TOI sits in the 3th percentile league-wide (8.66).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders87% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken77% match
shared: Hits
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights77% match
shared: Hits
Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets76% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jacob Quillan is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 5
fills: A, PPP, G, SOG
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	10.41	10.27	n/a
5v5 TOI	8.85	8.66	n/a
PP TOI	0.02	0.02	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 1 · 3 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 10.41: one NHL season — role grown +1% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 8.85: one NHL season — role grown +1% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 0.02: new coach (Jim Hiller) — late-year 0.0 role discounted until the new staff sets usage; one NHL season — role grown +1% toward a sophomore workload

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	3.61	3.61	n/a
G/60	0.30	0.30	n/a
iSH%	8.31	8.31	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.39	n/a
iCF/60	–	8.73	n/a
iSCF/60	–	2.71	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	1.81	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 1 · 3 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindAge 24 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +2% and role +1% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	10.55	10.55	n/a
IPP	49.72	49.72	n/a
1A/60	0.30	0.30	n/a
2A/60	0.30	0.30	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 1 · 3 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.5%, IPP 49.7%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.02	0.02	n/a
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 1 · 3 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	0.63	0.60	n/a
Hits/60	13.25	13.25	n/a
Blks/60	2.71	2.71	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 1 · 3 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (91st pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (13.25/60 projected).

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.71/60 (55th pct league-wide) → 2.71 projected.