Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2670 GP	H231 GP	H139 GP	Prev 352 GP · 1y
TOI	12.34	12.08	11.62	11.75	12.88
PP TOI	0.22	0.27	0.19	0.33	1.05
G	8	5	6	3	13
A	13	15	16	15	14
PTS	21	20	22	18	27
PPP	0	0	0	0	8
SOG	70	82	59	100	101
PIM	21	26	21	29	22
Hits	64	70	78	64	51
Blocks	39	34	42	28	38

Sample: 70 GP · 774 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

230Jacob Quillan-58

231Nathan Gaucher-59

232Sam Lafferty-59

233Fedor Svechkov-60

234Dylan Duke-62

235Tyler Pitlick-62

236Lukas Reichel-63

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 75% above where it started (1.73 in the first half, 3.02 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 56% below his 3-year rate last season (4.64 against 10.47).

Second-half fade

SOG

all5v5

Shots ran at a 59 pace in the second half after 100 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 85% above his 3-year rate last season (1.55 against 0.84).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets84% match
Taylor HallLW · Carolina Hurricanes81% match
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken80% match
Zach BensonLW · Buffalo Sabres80% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Fedor Svechkov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year (NSH, traded): Andrew Brunette full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.34	12.08	12.88	-6%
5v5 TOI	11.38	11.07	10.94	+1%
PP TOI	0.22	0.27	1.05	-75%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 12 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.34: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 11.38: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 0.22: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.15	4.96	5.06	-2%
G/60	0.26	0.23	0.53	-57%
iSH%	8.02	4.64	10.47	-56%
ixG/60	–	0.56	0.65	-14%
iCF/60	–	10.07	12.55	-20%
iSCF/60	–	5.96	7.38	-19%
iHDCF/60	–	2.71	3.16	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 12 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 4.6% sits near the 10.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.56 (43rd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.91	9.00	5.71	+58%
IPP	57.11	53.45	70.95	-25%
1A/60	0.36	0.54	0.11	+391%
2A/60	0.43	0.46	0.42	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 12 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 9.0% vs a 5.7% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.22	0.27	1.05	-75%
PP iSH%	13.01	0.00	16.68	-100%
PP SOG/60	4.25	9.61	13.13	-27%
PP ixG/60	–	0.93	2.89	-68%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 12 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.3→0.2 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.27	1.55	0.84	+85%
Hits/60	4.05	4.57	3.27	+40%
Blks/60	2.33	2.09	2.42	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 21 · 12 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.57/60 (56th pct league-wide) → 4.05 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.63/60 and 2nd-half 3.02 vs a 2.09 season rate (2.42 3-yr) (35th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.33/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.