Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2662 GP	H231 GP	H131 GP	Prev 324 GP · 1y
TOI	12.02	12.24	12.34	11.81	10.82
PP TOI	1.15	1.49	1.62	1.36	0.61
G	15	16	13	19	14
A	11	16	9	23	10
PTS	26	32	23	41	24
PPP	3	5	5	5	3
SOG	93	120	117	124	79
PIM	25	24	21	26	21
Hits	53	70	73	67	38
Blocks	58	58	70	46	55

Sample: 62 GP · 654 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

212Andrew Mangiapane-35

213Roger McQueen-35

214Nick Bjugstad-35

215Ethen Frank-36

216Jakob Pelletier-36

217Ilya Mikheyev-37

218Ivan Miroshnichenko-37

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 80% below where it started (13.62 in the first half, 2.69 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 9 pace in the second half after 23 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 60% above his 3-year rate last season (0.91 against 0.57).

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 66% above his 3-year rate last season (4.49 against 2.70).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken85% match
shared: Blocks
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames85% match
shared: Blocks
Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets84% match
shared: Blocks
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets82% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ethen Frank is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Mats ZuccarelloRW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Spencer Carbery (WSH)

Last year: Spencer Carbery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.02	12.24	10.82	+13%
5v5 TOI	10.08	10.56	10.18	+4%
PP TOI	1.15	1.49	0.61	+144%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 21 · 22 · 9

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.02: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.08: role tapered late (Q4 8.9 vs 10.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 1.15: role tapered late (Q4 0.6 vs 1.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.78	6.78	5.65	+20%
G/60	0.90	0.73	0.98	-26%
iSH%	13.27	10.77	17.35	-38%
ixG/60	–	0.91	0.57	+60%
iCF/60	–	12.74	9.57	+33%
iSCF/60	–	9.16	5.89	+56%
iHDCF/60	–	5.68	3.44	+65%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 21 · 22 · 9

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 10.8% vs 17.3% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.91 (88th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 13.3%, lifting the goal rate ~23%.

TailwindShot volume up 20% (5v5 SOG/60 6.78 vs 5.65) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.81→1.16 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.53	10.60	10.09	+5%
IPP	56.42	56.73	54.44	+4%
1A/60	0.42	0.55	0.25	+120%
2A/60	0.26	0.27	0.25	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 21 · 22 · 9

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.6%, IPP 56.7%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 12.74 vs 9.57) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 5.68 vs 3.44) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.15	1.49	0.61	+144%
PP iSH%	18.21	18.21	n/a
PP SOG/60	4.49	7.14	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	1.49	0.38	+292%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 21 · 22 · 9

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.5→1.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.6 vs 1.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.26	1.10	1.47	-25%
Hits/60	3.77	4.49	2.70	+66%
Blks/60	3.94	3.94	3.93	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 21 · 22 · 9

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.49/60 (55th pct league-wide) → 3.77 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.94/60 (80th pct league-wide) → 3.94 projected.