Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2677 GP	H240 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3204 GP · 3y
TOI	17.03	17.43	17.00	16.81	15.42
PP TOI	0.08	0.05	0.08	0.03	0.75
G	18	19	20	19	18
A	19	19	25	13	20
PTS	37	38	44	31	37
PPP	0	0	0	0	1
SOG	137	131	115	149	151
PIM	16	19	19	20	9
Hits	32	33	26	41	39
Blocks	24	25	23	26	19

Sample: 77 GP · 1,095 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

223Max Jones-36

224Jakob Pelletier-36

225Josh Dunne-36

226Ilya Mikheyev-37

227Adam Edstrom-37

228Daniil But-38

229Jack Drury-38

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 25 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 44 pace in the second half after 31 in the first, per 82 games.

Bottom of the league

Blks/60

Blks/60 sits in the 1th percentile league-wide (0.71).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres84% match
Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks78% match
Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth77% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets77% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ilya Mikheyev is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Curtis DouglasC,RW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year (CHI, traded): Jeff Blashill full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.03	17.43	15.42	+13%
5v5 TOI	14.05	14.23	12.82	+11%
PP TOI	0.08	0.05	0.75	-93%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 19 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.03: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.05: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.08: same coach (Jon Cooper) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.36	5.48	7.41	-26%
G/60	0.69	0.82	0.85	-3%
iSH%	12.93	14.96	11.46	+31%
ixG/60	–	0.63	0.74	-15%
iCF/60	–	9.69	11.93	-19%
iSCF/60	–	5.42	7.30	-26%
iHDCF/60	–	3.29	4.09	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 19 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 15.0% vs a 11.5% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.63 (52nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 12.9% pulls the goal rate ~16% down.

RiskShot volume down 26% (5v5 SOG/60 5.48 vs 7.41) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.29	9.59	11.43	-16%
IPP	68.72	72.60	63.97	+13%
1A/60	0.48	0.49	0.55	-10%
2A/60	0.39	0.27	0.48	-44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 19 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.6%, IPP 72.6%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.08	0.05	0.75	-93%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	5.26
PP SOG/60	1.87	0.00	7.47	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	1.34	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 19 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jon Cooper) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.60	0.66	0.50	+31%
Hits/60	1.41	1.42	2.11	-33%
Blks/60	0.76	0.71	0.89	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 19 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.86/60 and 2nd-half 1.04 below the 1.42 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.41/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.11 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.64/60 and 2nd-half 0.63 below the 0.71 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.76/60, weighting the recent decline over the 0.89 3-yr mark.