Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2629 GP	H214 GP	H115 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	13.17	12.47	12.44	12.51	–
PP TOI	1.29	1.35	1.08	1.64	–
G	▲10	9	13	5	–
A	▲12	11	12	11	–
PTS	▲22	20	25	16	–
PPP	▼6	8	0	16	–
SOG	▼121	122	101	148	–
PIM	▼22	23	25	22	–
Hits	▼42	45	57	38	–
Blocks	▼46	51	66	41	–

Sample: 29 GP · 319 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

225Josh Dunne-36

226Ilya Mikheyev-37

227Adam Edstrom-37

228Daniil But-38

229Jack Drury-38

230Sam Steel-39

231Danton Heinen-39

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Rookie baseline: projected role (multi-year wait, don't buy 26-27; one day could become someone like Nichushkin) blended with 2025-26 NHL (29 GP) at w=0.50. Per-82 line; GP/availability is separate. Tune here. PERIPHERALS RE-DERIVED 2026-07-27: the rookie-baseline blend applied its w=0.50 blend weighting to hits/blocks/PIM as well as to scoring, which is wrong for role stats. Hits and blocks are the most persistent, least noisy things a young player produces (they are excluded from the engine's 3-yr rate hedge for exactly that reason), and that side of the blend carries no real information about them, so halving the observed rate toward it just discards the best signal available. Re-derived at 65/35 toward his own observed rate over projected TOI rather than 100%, since rookie minutes can still move.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 71% below where it started (14.64 in the first half, 4.29 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 66 pace in the second half after 41 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 25% below last season, 8 to 6.

Top of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (1.07).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken86% match
shared: Blocks
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets84% match
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames84% match
shared: Blocks
Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues81% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Daniil But is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 3
fills: A, SOG, PIM
Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, SOG
Trevor ZegrasC,LW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · André Tourigny (UTA)

Last year: André Tourigny full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	13.17	12.47	n/a
5v5 TOI	11.70	11.00	n/a
PP TOI	1.29	1.35	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 15 · 13 · 1

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.17: one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 11.70: one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 1.29: role tapered late (Q4 1.1 vs 1.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	6.97	6.77	n/a
G/60	0.39	0.38	n/a
iSH%	5.61	5.61	n/a
ixG/60	–	1.07	n/a
iCF/60	–	15.23	n/a
iSCF/60	–	9.03	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	6.21	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 15 · 13 · 1

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextDo NOT project But for meaningful 2026-27 output despite the arrival tag; hold as a dynasty asset, keep near-term numbers minimal.

TailwindAge 21 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 21 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +8% and role +6% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	8.23	8.23	n/a
IPP	33.19	33.19	n/a
1A/60	0.38	0.38	n/a
2A/60	0.00	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 15 · 13 · 1

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.2%, IPP 33.2%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.29	1.35	n/a
PP iSH%	14.31	14.31	n/a
PP SOG/60	9.27	10.76	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	2.23	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 15 · 13 · 1

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.3 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.50	1.50	n/a
Hits/60	3.00	2.82	n/a
Blks/60	3.36	3.20	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 15 · 13 · 1

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.66/60 and 2nd-half 3.66 vs a 2.82 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (36th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.00/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.07/60 and 2nd-half 4.07 vs a 3.20 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (66th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.36/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.