🏒@HockeyBangers2026-27 projections

Overview

@HockeyBangers

2026-27 Projection

Dennis Cholowski

NYR · Age 28.5 · 🇨🇦 Canada · 6′2″, 210 lb · Draft 2016, 20th overall (DET)
NYRteam
Dposition
289position rank
809skater rank
-62overall
-46offense
-17peripherals
goals
6
assists
14
points
20
power play points
3
shots on goal
56
penalty minutes
20
hits
14
blocked shots
69

Value over replacement, based on 82 games played.
Ideal for H2H 12-team banger category leagues, 16 roster spots.

Per 82 GP2026-27projection2025-26thinH22 GPH115 GPPrev 339 GP · 1y
TOI13.07––14.2713.07
PP TOI1.23––0.231.23
G6–––6
A14–––15
PTS20–––21
PPP3–––4
SOG56–––63
PIM20–––21
Hits14–––11
Blocks69–––69

Sample: 17 GP · 243 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)
286Declan Chisholm-59
287Urho Vaakanainen-60
288Nick Leddy-62
289Dennis Cholowski-62
290P.O Joseph-63
291Egor Zamula-64
292Connor Mackey-64
offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Complementary Defense
Same position, opposite profile — strong where Dennis Cholowski is weak or average, light where he’s strong
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
the profile below
vs Similar
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Coaching
2026-27 · Mike Sullivan (NYR)
Last year (NJD, traded): Sheldon Keefe full season — no change
Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
TOI13.07n/a13.07
5v5 TOI11.56n/a11.56
PP TOI1.23n/a1.23
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  9 · 6 · 0 · 2
TOI*
3-yr 13.0714.25Q1Q2Q3Q4
5v5 TOI
3-yr 11.5614.25Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP TOI
3-yr 1.230.23Q1Q2Q3Q4
*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.
By season — year over year
TOI
13.0722-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
5v5 TOI
11.5622-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
PP TOI
1.2322-2323-2424-2525-2626-27

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
SOG/602.98n/a3.59
G/600.33n/a0.40
iSH%11.14n/a11.14
ixG/60–n/a0.11
iCF/60–n/a7.85
iSCF/60–n/a2.00
iHDCF/60–n/a0.53
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  9 · 6 · 0 · 2
SOG/60
3-yr 3.592.11Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSH%
3-yr 11.140.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
ixG/60
3-yr 0.110.09Q1Q2Q3Q4
iCF/60
3-yr 7.854.21Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSCF/60
3-yr 2.000.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
iHDCF/60
3-yr 0.530.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
SOG/60
3.5922-2323-2424-2525-26
iSH%
11.1422-2323-2424-2525-26
ixG/60
0.1122-2323-2424-2525-26
iCF/60
7.8522-2323-2424-2525-26
iSCF/60
2.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
iHDCF/60
0.5322-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
G
622-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
SOG
5622-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextNo 2025-26 sample — goals/shots projected off the prior 3-yr profile, held flat.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
on-ice SH%9.28n/a9.28
IPP46.90n/a46.90
1A/600.27n/a0.27
2A/600.40n/a0.40
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  9 · 6 · 0 · 2
1A/60
3-yr 0.270.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
2A/60
3-yr 0.400.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
1A/60
0.2722-2323-2424-2525-26
2A/60
0.4022-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
A
1422-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
PTS
2022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.3%, IPP 46.9%).
ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PP TOI1.23n/a1.23
PP iSH%0.00n/a0.00
PP SOG/602.06n/a3.74
PP ixG/60–n/a0.29
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  9 · 6 · 0 · 2
PP TOI/GP
3-yr 1.230.23Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP SOG/60
3-yr 3.740.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP ixG/60
3-yr 0.290.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PP TOI/GP
1.2322-2323-2424-2525-26
PP SOG/60
3.7422-2323-2424-2525-26
PP ixG/60
0.2922-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PPP
322-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPG
122-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPA
222-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PIMs/601.18n/a1.33
Hits/600.90n/a0.67
Blks/604.26n/a4.26
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  9 · 6 · 0 · 2
PIMs/60
3-yr 1.331.40Q1Q2Q3Q4
Hits/60
3-yr 0.672.11Q1Q2Q3Q4
Blks/60
3-yr 4.263.51Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PIMs/60
1.3322-2323-2424-2525-26
Hits/60
0.6722-2323-2424-2525-26
Blks/60
4.2622-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PIM
2022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
HITS
1422-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
BLK
6922-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.11/60 and 2nd-half 1.05 vs a 0.67 season rate (0.67 3-yr) (3rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 0.90/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.
TailwindElite blocks volume (86th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.26/60 projected).