Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2672 GP	H238 GP	H134 GP	Prev 3216 GP · 3y
TOI	12.95	13.67	13.26	12.98	12.16
PP TOI	2.00	2.34	1.99	2.74	1.63
G	17	19	18	20	16
A	16	23	17	29	13
PTS	33	42	36	49	29
PPP	11	15	9	22	9
SOG	110	129	108	152	113
PIM	83	92	111	72	77
Hits	37	34	34	34	49
Blocks	24	23	26	19	25

Sample: 72 GP · 776 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

121Vladimir Tarasenko1

122Michael Eyssimont1

123Mavrik Bourque1

124Corey Perry0

125Michael Carcone0

126Evan Rodrigues0

127David Perron0

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 9 pace in the second half after 22 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 44% above his 3-year rate last season (2.34 against 1.63).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 17 pace in the second half after 29 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 30% below his 3-year rate last season (2.32 against 3.31).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Max DomiC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs87% match
shared: PIM
Zach BensonLW · Buffalo Sabres83% match
shared: PIM
Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth78% match
Taylor HallLW · Carolina Hurricanes77% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Corey Perry is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 3
fills: A, SOG, Hits
Jesper BrattRW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: A, SOG
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: SOG, A
Rickard RakellLW,RW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 2
fills: SOG, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice

Last year (TBL, traded): D.J. Smith LAK · pre-trade → Jon Cooper TBL · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.95	13.67	12.16	+12%
5v5 TOI	10.38	10.78	10.14	+6%
PP TOI	2.00	2.34	1.63	+44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 18 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.95: reverts toward the 3-yr 12.2
5v5 TOI → 10.38: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.00: role tapered late (Q4 1.6 vs 2.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.60	5.87	6.11	-4%
G/60	0.69	0.70	0.77	-9%
iSH%	12.28	11.93	12.53	-5%
ixG/60	–	0.75	0.77	-2%
iCF/60	–	12.37	11.64	+6%
iSCF/60	–	6.65	7.40	-10%
iHDCF/60	–	3.63	3.97	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 18 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 11.9% sits near the 12.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.75 (68th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.92 (1st half) to 0.60 (2nd).

RiskAge 41 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.71	10.41	8.28	+26%
IPP	60.20	63.53	53.45	+19%
1A/60	0.43	0.54	0.30	+80%
2A/60	0.29	0.39	0.22	+76%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 18 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 10.4% (3-yr 8.3%) AND IPP 63.5% (3-yr 53.4%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~6%.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.00	2.34	1.63	+44%
PP iSH%	20.79	16.15	24.14	-33%
PP SOG/60	9.90	11.02	9.89	+11%
PP ixG/60	–	2.76	2.06	+34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 18 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 2.3→2.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.6 vs 2.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (16.2% vs 24.1%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	4.87	5.02	5.26	-5%
Hits/60	2.58	2.32	3.31	-30%
Blks/60	1.54	1.39	1.76	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 18 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.32/60 (29th pct league-wide) → 2.58 projected.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (13th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.39/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.