Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.
Metrics worth highlighting
The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year
Below his 3-year rate
PP TOI
PP TOI ran 82% below his 3-year rate last season (0.44 against 2.46).
We project it up
A
all5v5
We’re projecting assists 50% above last season, 12 to 18.
We project it down
PIM
all5v5
We’re projecting penalty minutes 39% below last season, 23 to 14.
Second-half fade
Blks/60
Blks/60 finished the year 37% below where it started (5.33 in the first half, 3.38 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.
Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.
Similar & complementary players
Similar makeup Defense
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
the profile below
vs Similar
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
complements fill the gaps
Deployment
Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Metric
26-27 proj
2025-26
Prev 3
Diff
TOI
14.05
13.10
17.15
-24%
5v5 TOI
12.66
12.16
14.02
-13%
PP TOI
0.63
0.44
2.46
-82%
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP 7 · 5 · 9 · 7
TOI*
5v5 TOI
PP TOI
*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.
By season — year over year
TOI
5v5 TOI
PP TOI
TOI → 14.05: reverts toward the 3-yr 17.2
5v5 TOI → 12.66: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.63: carries part of the elevated finish (2nd half 0.7, Q4 0.9) over the full-year 0.4
Shooting — volume & conversion
How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 0.0% sits near the 8.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.15 (13th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.
RiskShot volume down 36% (5v5 SOG/60 2.47 vs 3.87) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.
ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.20 (1st half) to 0.14 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.
Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense
Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.2%, IPP 33.3%).
ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.
Power play
PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
TailwindPP role projected up: 0.4→0.6 PP TOI/gp (carries part of the elevated finish (2nd half 0.7, Q4 0.9) over the full-year 0.4) — the biggest PPP lever.
Physical — PIM · hits · blocks
Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.66/60 and 2nd-half 2.06 below the 1.94 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.75/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.62 3-yr mark.
RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.30/60 and 2nd-half 3.38 below the 4.05 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.58/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.21 3-yr mark.