Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 120 pace in the second half after 32 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 88 pace in the second half after 51 in the first, per 82 games.

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 5th percentile league-wide (0.01).

Below his 3-year rate

iSCF/60

iSCF/60 ran 53% below his 3-year rate last season (1.39 against 2.99).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers75% match
Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangers73% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers71% match
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals71% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Matthew Kessel is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Montgomery (STL)

Last year: Jim Montgomery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.15	12.54	15.24	-18%
5v5 TOI	12.68	11.94	14.49	-18%
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	0.03	-60%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 8 · 7 · 2

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.15: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.68: same coach (Jim Montgomery) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 12.8, Q4 12.8) over the full-year 11.9
PP TOI → 0.02: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.47	3.47	2.74	+27%
G/60	0.25	0.35	0.06	+456%
iSH%	6.19	10.09	2.30	+339%
ixG/60	–	0.15	0.11	+38%
iCF/60	–	7.45	8.22	-9%
iSCF/60	–	1.39	2.99	-53%
iHDCF/60	–	0.35	0.49	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 8 · 7 · 2

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.15 (13th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.11 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 27% (5v5 SOG/60 3.47 vs 2.74) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.16 (1st half) to 0.10 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.18	9.76	8.49	+15%
IPP	27.02	25.00	30.32	-18%
1A/60	0.22	0.17	0.24	-30%
2A/60	0.16	0.00	0.30	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 8 · 7 · 2

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 25.0% sits below the 30.3% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	0.03	-60%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 8 · 7 · 2

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.96	1.73	1.34	+29%
Hits/60	4.13	3.64	3.54	+3%
Blks/60	4.57	4.16	4.93	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 8 · 7 · 2

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 6.68/60 and 2nd-half 6.68 vs a 3.64 season rate (3.54 3-yr) (45th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.13/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.68/60 and 2nd-half 4.68 vs a 4.16 season rate (4.93 3-yr) (84th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.57/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.