Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 83% above where it started (1.50 in the first half, 2.75 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 71% above where it started (0.81 in the first half, 1.38 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 48% above last season, 21 to 31.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 36% above last season, 11 to 15.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres81% match
Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth75% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets75% match
Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks75% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Sonny Milano is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Spencer Carbery (WSH)

Last year: Spencer Carbery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	9.75	8.88	12.73	-30%
5v5 TOI	8.42	7.80	11.69	-33%
PP TOI	1.05	1.05	0.85	+23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 14 · 7 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 9.75: reverts toward the 3-yr 12.7
5v5 TOI → 8.42: role tapered late (Q4 6.2 vs 7.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 1.05: same coach (Spencer Carbery) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.3, Q4 1.3) over the full-year 1.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.05	6.95	5.18	+34%
G/60	1.14	0.99	1.00	-1%
iSH%	16.18	14.24	19.33	-26%
ixG/60	–	0.87	0.62	+40%
iCF/60	–	12.66	9.49	+33%
iSCF/60	–	8.69	6.13	+42%
iHDCF/60	–	3.72	3.27	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 14 · 7 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 14.2% vs 19.3% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.87 (84th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 16.2%, lifting the goal rate ~15%.

TailwindShot volume up 34% (5v5 SOG/60 6.95 vs 5.18) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.40	10.26	11.24	-9%
IPP	67.35	66.78	70.86	-6%
1A/60	0.79	0.99	0.55	+81%
2A/60	0.32	0.00	0.55	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 14 · 7 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.3%, IPP 66.8%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 12.66 vs 9.49) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.72 vs 3.27) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.05	1.05	0.85	+23%
PP iSH%	28.39	0.00	36.39	-100%
PP SOG/60	7.27	7.39	6.83	+8%
PP ixG/60	–	0.74	1.40	-47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 14 · 7 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.89	0.99	1.18	-16%
Hits/60	2.26	1.74	2.59	-33%
Blks/60	0.77	0.74	1.14	-35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 14 · 7 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.75/60 and 2nd-half 2.75 vs a 1.74 season rate (2.59 3-yr) (21st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.26/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.00/60 and 2nd-half 0.00 below the 0.74 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.77/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.14 3-yr mark.