Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

RiskRegress points hard toward a replacement-level defenseman line.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (5.83 in the first half, 14.76 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 90% above where it started (0.64 in the first half, 1.21 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 47% below last season, 30 to 16.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 44% below his 3-year rate last season (1.51 against 2.70).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres79% match
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers75% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers75% match
Simon NemecD · Calgary Flames71% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ryan Shea is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, PIM, Hits
Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 3
fills: PIM, SOG, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG
Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 3
fills: SOG, PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year (PIT, traded): Dan Muse full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.16	18.89	14.91	+27%
5v5 TOI	15.73	15.90	13.31	+20%
PP TOI	0.15	0.17	0.04	+298%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 23 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.16: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.73: established top role held near 15.9 — the late dip (Q4 15.4) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 0.15: new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 0.2 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.25	3.25	2.19	+48%
G/60	0.28	0.28	0.19	+44%
iSH%	8.75	8.62	8.89	-3%
ixG/60	–	0.17	0.08	+123%
iCF/60	–	8.49	6.31	+35%
iSCF/60	–	2.36	1.54	+53%
iHDCF/60	–	0.28	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 23 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.17 (18th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.08 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 48% (5v5 SOG/60 3.25 vs 2.19) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.14→0.17 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.59	13.09	7.54	+74%
IPP	35.98	42.98	17.08	+152%
1A/60	0.59	0.90	0.13	+589%
2A/60	0.13	0.38	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 23 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 13.1% (3-yr 7.5%) AND IPP 43.0% (3-yr 17.1%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~14%.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 8.49 vs 6.31) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.15	0.17	0.04	+298%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 23 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.2→0.2 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 0.2 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.65	0.57	1.03	-44%
Hits/60	1.71	1.51	2.70	-44%
Blks/60	3.75	3.54	4.06	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 23 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.92/60 and 2nd-half 1.24 below the 1.51 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.71/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.70 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.54/60 (71st pct league-wide) → 3.75 projected.