Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2659 GP	H233 GP	H126 GP	Prev 3117 GP · 2y
TOI	12.19	11.80	11.99	11.31	14.27
PP TOI	0.44	0.43	0.03	0.94	1.40
G	12	18	22	13	13
A	14	14	12	16	16
PTS	26	32	35	28	29
PPP	1	0	0	0	4
SOG	91	83	101	61	111
PIM	22	20	15	25	29
Hits	70	65	85	41	76
Blocks	25	26	32	19	27

Sample: 59 GP · 659 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

240Alex Barré-Boulet-48

241Conor Sheary-49

242Brett Leason-50

243Kailer Yamamoto-50

244Brad Lambert-50

245Ian Moore-51

246Vinnie Hinostroza-51

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 85 pace in the second half after 41 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 22 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 93% above his 3-year rate last season (22.39 against 11.59).

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 69% below his 3-year rate last season (0.43 against 1.40).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres81% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets81% match
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken79% match
Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth78% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Kailer Yamamoto is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · André Tourigny (UTA)

Last year: André Tourigny full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.19	11.80	14.27	-17%
5v5 TOI	11.57	11.18	11.86	-6%
PP TOI	0.44	0.43	1.40	-69%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 13 · 15 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.19: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.57: same coach (André Tourigny) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 11.9, Q4 11.7) over the full-year 11.2
PP TOI → 0.44: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.38	5.27	5.62	-6%
G/60	0.87	1.18	0.65	+81%
iSH%	16.13	22.39	11.59	+93%
ixG/60	–	0.72	0.75	-4%
iCF/60	–	8.09	8.52	-5%
iSCF/60	–	6.18	6.27	-1%
iHDCF/60	–	3.46	3.63	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 13 · 15 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 22.4% vs a 11.6% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.72 (64th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 16.1% pulls the goal rate ~26% down.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.64→0.77 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.29	13.07	7.66	+71%
IPP	62.03	63.91	56.29	+14%
1A/60	0.48	0.64	0.30	+110%
2A/60	0.30	0.27	0.39	-30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 13 · 15 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 13.1% vs a 7.7% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.44	0.43	1.40	-69%
PP iSH%	9.16	0.00	11.74	-100%
PP SOG/60	2.31	2.36	6.23	-62%
PP ixG/60	–	0.62	1.63	-62%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 13 · 15 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.4 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.09	1.09	1.38	-21%
Hits/60	4.51	4.27	4.54	-6%
Blks/60	1.65	1.73	1.43	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 13 · 15 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 4.83/60 and 2nd-half 5.23 vs a 4.27 season rate (4.54 3-yr) (52nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.51/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.99/60 and 2nd-half 1.99 vs a 1.73 season rate (1.43 3-yr) (24th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.65/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.