Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-26thin	H21 GP	H11 GP	Prev 352 GP · 1y
TOI	10.22	–	–	–	10.22
PP TOI	0.05	–	–	–	0.05
G	3	–	–	–	3
A	8	–	–	–	8
PTS	11	–	–	–	11
PPP	0	–	–	–	0
SOG	52	–	–	–	54
PIM	9	–	–	–	10
Hits	76	–	–	–	80
Blocks	35	–	–	–	35

Sample: 2 GP · 14 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

259Justin Robidas-80

260Filip Bystedt-80

261Amadeus Lombardi-80

262Justin Dowling-82

263Rory Kerins-82

264Xavier Bourgault-83

265Oskar Back-86

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders79% match
shared: Hits
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets79% match
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken77% match
shared: Hits
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights76% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Justin Dowling is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 5
fills: A, PPP, G, SOG
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Sullivan (NYR)

Last year: Mike Sullivan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	10.22	n/a	10.22
5v5 TOI	10.00	n/a	10.00
PP TOI	0.05	n/a	0.05

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 1 · 1 · 0

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 10.22: No qualifying 2025-26 — projected off the prior role
5v5 TOI → 10.00: No qualifying 2025-26 — projected off the prior role
PP TOI → 0.05: No qualifying 2025-26 — projected off the prior role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	3.47	n/a	3.58
G/60	0.12	n/a	0.12
iSH%	3.35	n/a	3.35
ixG/60	–	n/a	0.42
iCF/60	–	n/a	9.46
iSCF/60	–	n/a	4.62
iHDCF/60	–	n/a	2.08

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 1 · 1 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextNo 2025-26 sample — goals/shots projected off the prior 3-yr profile, held flat.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	5.86	n/a	5.86
IPP	54.33	n/a	54.33
1A/60	0.23	n/a	0.23
2A/60	0.35	n/a	0.35

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 1 · 1 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 5.9%, IPP 54.3%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.05	n/a	0.05
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	n/a	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	n/a	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 1 · 1 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	0.66	n/a	0.69
Hits/60	5.59	n/a	5.88
Blks/60	2.54	n/a	2.54

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 1 · 1 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 5.88/60 (68th pct league-wide) → 5.59 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.54/60 (50th pct league-wide) → 2.54 projected.