Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2660 GP	H224 GP	H136 GP	Prev 356 GP · 1y
TOI	16.87	16.96	15.43	17.35	16.35
PP TOI	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.14	0.03
G	5	3	0	5	6
A	14	18	21	15	13
PTS	19	21	21	20	19
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	78	53	44	60	92
PIM	57	27	34	23	69
Hits	116	86	90	83	145
Blocks	103	108	101	113	107

Sample: 60 GP · 900 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

150Brendan Smith-10

151Alex Petrovic-10

152Alexandre Carrier-10

153Drew Helleson-11

154Cale Fleury-11

155Jack St. Ivany-12

156Matthew Robertson-12

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 111% above last season, 27 to 57.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 21 pace in the second half after 15 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 35% above last season, 86 to 116.

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 43% below his 3-year rate last season (2.46 against 4.29).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals83% match
Adam LarssonD · Seattle Kraken80% match
shared: Hits
Martin FehervaryD · Washington Capitals79% match
shared: Hits
Brenden DillonD · New Jersey Devils79% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Drew Helleson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Joel Quenneville (ANA)

Last year: Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.87	16.96	16.35	+4%
5v5 TOI	14.39	15.01	14.97	+0%
PP TOI	0.06	0.08	0.03	+231%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 15 · 9

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.87: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.39: role tapered late (Q4 13.0 vs 15.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.06: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.42	2.46	4.29	-43%
G/60	0.15	0.13	0.29	-55%
iSH%	6.32	5.28	6.76	-22%
ixG/60	–	0.11	0.16	-31%
iCF/60	–	8.13	10.59	-23%
iSCF/60	–	2.13	3.15	-32%
iHDCF/60	–	0.27	0.50	-46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 15 · 9

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 5.3% sits near the 6.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.11 (5th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 43% (5v5 SOG/60 2.46 vs 4.29) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.07→0.23 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.52	10.13	10.99	-8%
IPP	31.54	30.08	33.33	-10%
1A/60	0.34	0.27	0.43	-37%
2A/60	0.23	0.40	0.14	+186%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 15 · 9

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.1%, IPP 30.1%).

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.40 vs 3-yr 0.14) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.06	0.08	0.03	+231%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 15 · 9

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.58	1.33	3.08	-57%
Hits/60	5.00	3.80	6.80	-44%
Blks/60	4.34	4.53	4.72	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 15 · 9

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.80/60 (47th pct league-wide) → 5.00 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.56/60 and 2nd-half 4.04 below the 4.53 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.34/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.72 3-yr mark.