Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2654 GP	H215 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	15.35	15.35	14.21	15.58	–
PP TOI	0.02	0.02	–	0.03	–
G	3	3	-0	4	–
A	12	12	-0	15	–
PTS	15	15	-0	19	–
PPP	0	0	–	0	–
SOG	85	87	75	95	–
PIM	50	71	-0	99	–
Hits	125	134	131	134	–
Blocks	116	117	124	123	–

Sample: 54 GP · 791 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

148Nicolas Hague-10

149Jaycob Megna-10

150Brendan Smith-10

151Alex Petrovic-10

152Alexandre Carrier-10

153Drew Helleson-11

154Cale Fleury-11

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it down

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 30% below last season, 71 to 50.

Second-half fade

SOG

all5v5

Shots ran at a 75 pace in the second half after 95 in the first, per 82 games.

Top of the league

Blks/60

Blks/60 sits in the 96th percentile league-wide (5.46).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Brenden DillonD · New Jersey Devils91% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knights90% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth89% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Connor CliftonD · Boston Bruins89% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alex Petrovic is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year (DAL, traded): Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	15.35	15.35	n/a
5v5 TOI	14.38	14.65	n/a
PP TOI	0.02	0.02	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 12 · 3

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.35: holds the rookie-season role
5v5 TOI → 14.38: role tapered late (Q4 13.7 vs 14.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.02: holds the rookie-season role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	4.19	4.32	n/a
G/60	0.15	0.15	n/a
iSH%	3.47	3.47	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.14	n/a
iCF/60	–	9.03	n/a
iSCF/60	–	2.12	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	0.08	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 12 · 3

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.16 (1st half) to 0.06 (2nd).

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	10.49	10.49	n/a
IPP	28.68	28.68	n/a
1A/60	0.38	0.38	n/a
2A/60	0.23	0.23	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 12 · 3

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.5%, IPP 28.7%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.02	0.02	n/a
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 12 · 3

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	2.50	3.57	n/a
Hits/60	5.98	6.30	n/a
Blks/60	5.55	5.46	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 12 · 3

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 6.30/60 (70th pct league-wide) → 5.98 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 6.19/60 and 2nd-half 6.19 vs a 5.46 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (96th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 5.55/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.08/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.