Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2655 GP	H223 GP	H132 GP	Prev 372 GP · 2y
TOI	15.04	14.59	14.43	14.77	16.14
PP TOI	0.35	0.24	0.09	0.36	0.99
G	6	9	0	15	6
A	13	13	17	13	15
PTS	19	22	17	28	21
PPP	1	0	0	0	2
SOG	111	106	71	125	135
PIM	23	28	9	38	26
Hits	39	42	47	33	40
Blocks	87	82	88	78	96

Sample: 55 GP · 781 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

232Henri Jokiharju-37

233Jordan Oesterle-37

234Nick Blankenburg-37

235Ben Hutton-38

236Victor Mancini-38

237Jordan Harris-38

238Ty Nelson-38

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 130% above his 3-year rate last season (8.57 against 3.72).

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 9 pace in the second half after 38 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

SOG

all5v5

Shots ran at a 71 pace in the second half after 125 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres84% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers81% match
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers80% match
Gustav ForslingD · Florida Panthers76% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ben Hutton is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 4
fills: A, PIM, SOG, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year: Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.04	14.59	16.14	-10%
5v5 TOI	14.33	14.21	14.56	-2%
PP TOI	0.35	0.24	0.99	-76%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 19 · 19 · 4

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.04: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.33: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.35: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.73	5.37	6.18	-13%
G/60	0.33	0.46	0.23	+100%
iSH%	5.18	8.57	3.72	+130%
ixG/60	–	0.22	0.31	-29%
iCF/60	–	11.13	11.62	-4%
iSCF/60	–	2.46	3.15	-22%
iHDCF/60	–	0.54	0.80	-32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 19 · 19 · 4

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 8.6% vs a 3.7% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.22 (25th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 5.2% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 5.37 vs 6.18) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.28 (1st half) to 0.10 (2nd).

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.67	11.66	8.34	+40%
IPP	35.05	38.46	32.77	+17%
1A/60	0.26	0.23	0.29	-20%
2A/60	0.39	0.46	0.34	+34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 19 · 19 · 4

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 11.7% (3-yr 8.3%) AND IPP 38.5% (3-yr 32.8%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~16%.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.46 vs 3-yr 0.34) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.35	0.24	0.99	-76%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.48	0.00	5.90	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.24	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 19 · 19 · 4

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.2→0.3 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.06	1.46	1.20	+22%
Hits/60	2.03	2.15	2.00	+7%
Blks/60	4.30	4.15	4.52	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 19 · 19 · 4

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.43/60 and 2nd-half 2.43 vs a 2.15 season rate (2.00 3-yr) (27th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.03/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 4.15/60 (84th pct league-wide) → 4.30 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.08/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.