Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2628 GP	H216 GP	H112 GP	Prev 3135 GP · 2y
TOI	11.49	11.48	10.51	12.56	11.62
PP TOI	0.45	0.45	0.20	0.78	0.98
G	11	9	10	7	12
A	13	18	26	7	12
PTS	24	26	36	14	24
PPP	1	0	0	0	2
SOG	104	88	77	103	116
PIM	18	29	10	55	15
Hits	66	85	138	14	50
Blocks	22	32	31	34	19

Sample: 28 GP · 304 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

246Vinnie Hinostroza-51

247Jonny Brodzinski-52

248Walker Duehr-52

249Alexander Holtz-52

250Joakim Kemell-53

251Colby Barlow-53

252Joel Kiviranta-53

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 10 pace in the second half after 55 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 54% below his 3-year rate last season (0.45 against 0.98).

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 64% above his 3-year rate last season (5.71 against 3.48).

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 46% below where it started (24.86 in the first half, 13.32 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres82% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets79% match
Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth78% match
Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks76% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alexander Holtz is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year: Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.49	11.48	11.62	-1%
5v5 TOI	10.77	10.89	10.49	+4%
PP TOI	0.45	0.45	0.98	-54%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 5 · 16 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.49: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.77: role tapered late (Q4 10.3 vs 10.9 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.45: role tapered late (Q4 0.2 vs 0.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.51	5.51	7.33	-25%
G/60	0.58	0.59	0.76	-23%
iSH%	10.60	10.71	10.43	+3%
ixG/60	–	0.95	0.72	+32%
iCF/60	–	13.18	13.82	-5%
iSCF/60	–	7.28	6.31	+15%
iHDCF/60	–	4.33	2.63	+65%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 5 · 16 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.95 (91st pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.72 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 25% (5v5 SOG/60 5.51 vs 7.33) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.84→1.01 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.59	13.18	8.14	+62%
IPP	65.84	64.36	70.62	-9%
1A/60	0.37	0.39	0.38	+2%
2A/60	0.53	0.79	0.38	+108%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 5 · 16 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 13.2% vs a 8.1% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.33 vs 2.63) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.79 vs 3-yr 0.38) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.45	0.45	0.98	-54%
PP iSH%	6.84	0.00	11.79	-100%
PP SOG/60	7.93	9.59	7.72	+24%
PP ixG/60	–	1.74	1.24	+41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 5 · 16 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.4 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 11.8%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.95	1.18	0.85	+39%
Hits/60	5.55	5.71	3.48	+64%
Blks/60	1.74	2.16	1.36	+59%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 5 · 16 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 9.86/60 and 2nd-half 9.86 vs a 5.71 season rate (3.48 3-yr) (67th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 5.55/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.16/60 (37th pct league-wide) → 1.74 projected.