Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2658 GP	H227 GP	H131 GP	Prev 323 GP · 1y
TOI	17.19	17.01	16.83	16.15	18.10
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.04	0.07
G	3	1	1	1	3
A	17	21	25	17	14
PTS	20	23	27	19	18
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	103	83	98	71	118
PIM	25	41	48	35	21
Hits	55	40	50	31	64
Blocks	62	66	74	60	61

Sample: 58 GP · 894 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

260Vincent Iorio-46

261Justin Barron-46

262Joel Hanley-46

263Adam Wilsby-46

264Kaedan Korczak-46

265Sawyer Mynio-47

266Cody Ceci-47

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 72% below where it started (0.52 in the first half, 0.14 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 50 pace in the second half after 31 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 39% below last season, 41 to 25.

We project it down

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 13% below last season, 23 to 20.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers77% match
Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres74% match
Dmitry OrlovD · San Jose Sharks74% match
Gustav ForslingD · Florida Panthers74% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Adam Wilsby is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Andrew Brunette (NSH)

Last year: Andrew Brunette full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.19	17.01	18.10	-6%
5v5 TOI	15.86	15.41	16.17	-5%
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.07	-55%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 17 · 14 · 13

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.19: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.86: same coach (Andrew Brunette) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 15.8, Q4 16.7) over the full-year 15.4
PP TOI → 0.04: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.72	3.62	4.84	-25%
G/60	0.00	0.00	0.16	-100%
iSH%	1.65	0.00	3.31	-100%
ixG/60	–	0.24	0.18	+33%
iCF/60	–	8.59	11.45	-25%
iSCF/60	–	2.89	3.06	-6%
iHDCF/60	–	0.81	0.97	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 17 · 14 · 13

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 0.0% vs 3.3% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.24 (28th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 1.7%, lifting the goal rate ~3%.

RiskShot volume down 25% (5v5 SOG/60 3.62 vs 4.84) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.20→0.30 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.11	7.97	8.29	-4%
IPP	28.32	38.94	21.24	+83%
1A/60	0.20	0.34	0.00
2A/60	0.37	0.47	0.32	+47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 17 · 14 · 13

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 38.9% vs 21.2% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.47 vs 3-yr 0.32) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.07	-55%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.51	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 17 · 14 · 13

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.44	1.81	0.97	+87%
Hits/60	2.19	1.68	2.90	-42%
Blks/60	2.72	2.82	2.58	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 17 · 14 · 13

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.48/60 and 2nd-half 2.10 vs a 1.68 season rate (2.90 3-yr) (20th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.19/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.82/60 (58th pct league-wide) → 2.72 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.