Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2664 GP	H236 GP	H128 GP	Prev 3201 GP · 3y
TOI	18.30	19.19	18.73	18.58	16.02
PP TOI	0.04	0.04	0.02	0.09	0.06
G	3	4	1	7	3
A	10	14	14	15	9
PTS	13	18	15	22	11
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	82	82	89	74	79
PIM	30	26	21	32	42
Hits	53	39	37	40	70
Blocks	108	101	125	72	91

Sample: 64 GP · 1,064 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

241Adam Jiricek-40

242Nils Lundkvist-40

243Kevin Korchinski-40

244Troy Stecher-40

245Lukas Cormier-40

246John Marino-41

247Kirill Kirsanov-42

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 131% above where it started (2.11 in the first half, 4.87 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 59% below his 3-year rate last season (1.35 against 3.27).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 29% below last season, 14 to 10.

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 15 pace in the second half after 22 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers77% match
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers77% match
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals75% match
Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangers72% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Troy Stecher is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year (TOR, traded): Kris Knoblauch EDM · pre-trade → Craig Berube TOR · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.30	19.19	16.02	+20%
5v5 TOI	16.44	16.64	14.04	+18%
PP TOI	0.04	0.04	0.06	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 20 · 22 · 14

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.30: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.44: established top role held near 16.6 — the late dip (Q4 15.7) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 0.04: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.22	3.32	3.87	-14%
G/60	0.12	0.11	0.15	-26%
iSH%	3.68	3.31	3.83	-14%
ixG/60	–	0.17	0.18	-7%
iCF/60	–	9.24	9.74	-5%
iSCF/60	–	2.20	2.80	-22%
iHDCF/60	–	0.23	0.57	-60%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 20 · 22 · 14

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 3.3% sits near the 3.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.17 (18th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 3.32 vs 3.87) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.43	9.76	7.48	+30%
IPP	30.03	30.17	29.85	+1%
1A/60	0.26	0.28	0.27	+2%
2A/60	0.20	0.34	0.17	+103%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 20 · 22 · 14

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 9.8% vs a 7.5% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.34 vs 3-yr 0.17) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.04	0.04	0.06	-23%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.34	0.00	5.38	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.14	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 20 · 22 · 14

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.97	1.01	1.93	-48%
Hits/60	1.82	1.35	3.27	-59%
Blks/60	4.22	3.72	3.85	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 8 · 20 · 22 · 14

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (13th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 5.18/60 and 2nd-half 4.87 vs a 3.72 season rate (3.85 3-yr) (75th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.22/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.