Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2626 GP	H28 GP	H118 GP	Prev 343 GP · 1y
TOI	12.42	12.02	10.53	12.11	14.60
PP TOI	0.16	0.12	–	0.17	0.01
G	▲2	0	0	0	2
A	▼8	0	0	0	17
PTS	▼10	0	0	0	19
PPP	▲2	0	–	0	0
SOG	▲72	50	47	50	72
PIM	▲48	50	23	55	42
Hits	▼32	25	35	23	44
Blocks	▲75	60	45	69	86

Sample: 26 GP · 296 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

272Hunter Brzustewicz-49

273Jake Bean-50

274Ian Moore-51

275David Jiricek-51

276Albert Johansson-52

277Nick Jensen-52

278Adam Engstrom-53

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Rookie baseline: projected role (spot secure but PP-blocked -> suppress PPP; one day could become someone like Ekblad) blended with 2025-26 NHL (26 GP) at w=0.50. Per-82 line; GP/availability is separate. Tune here.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 23 pace in the second half after 55 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 46% below where it started (4.67 in the first half, 2.54 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Bottom of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 3th percentile league-wide (0.10).

Bottom of the league

1A/60

1A/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (0.00).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Blues74% match
Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth73% match
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Panthers73% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers71% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where David Jiricek is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Tocchet (PHI)

Last year (PHI, traded): John Hynes MIN · pre-trade → Rick Tocchet PHI · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.42	12.02	14.60	-18%
5v5 TOI	11.30	11.42	14.07	-19%
PP TOI	0.16	0.12	0.01	+1102%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 6 · 7 · 1

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.42: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 11.30: role tapered late (Q4 10.1 vs 11.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.16: same coach (Rick Tocchet) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.4) over the full-year 0.1; age 22 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.15	3.03	3.57	-15%
G/60	0.00	0.00	0.10	-100%
iSH%	1.96	0.00	2.80	-100%
ixG/60	–	0.10	0.14	-29%
iCF/60	–	8.09	9.03	-10%
iSCF/60	–	2.02	2.18	-7%
iHDCF/60	–	0.20	0.40	-50%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 6 · 7 · 1

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 0.0% sits near the 2.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.10 (3rd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 15% (5v5 SOG/60 3.03 vs 3.57) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.09	7.46	6.63	+12%
IPP	16.77	0.00	44.13	-100%
1A/60	0.21	0.00	0.50	-100%
2A/60	0.13	0.00	0.20	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 6 · 7 · 1

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextProject Jiricek onto PHI but suppress his PPP for 2026-27 (PP-blocked); flag an upside path only if Drysdale is injured.

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.5%, IPP 0.0%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.16	0.12	0.01	+1102%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	17.38	19.05	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	1.06	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 6 · 7 · 1

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextProject Jiricek onto PHI but suppress his PPP for 2026-27 (PP-blocked); flag an upside path only if Drysdale is injured.

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.2 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Rick Tocchet) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.4) over the full-year 0.1; age 22 riser — small growth bias) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.45	3.23	2.18	+48%
Hits/60	2.10	1.62	2.28	-29%
Blks/60	3.73	3.23	4.46	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 6 · 7 · 1

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.54/60 and 2nd-half 2.54 vs a 1.62 season rate (2.28 3-yr) (18th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.10/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.54/60 and 2nd-half 2.54 below the 3.23 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.73/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.46 3-yr mark.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (3.23/60 (84th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.