🏒@HockeyBangers2026-27 projections

Overview

@HockeyBangers

2026-27 Projection

Chris Tanev

TOR · Age 36.6 · 🇨🇦 Canada · 6′2″, 193 lb · Undrafted
TORteam
Dposition
217position rank
610skater rank
-31overall
-54offense
22peripherals
goals
2
assists
16
points
18
power play points
0
shots on goal
65
penalty minutes
16
hits
35
blocked shots
164

Value over replacement, based on 82 games played.
Ideal for H2H 12-team banger category leagues, 16 roster spots.

Per 82 GP2026-27projection2025-26thinH225-26H111 GPPrev 3215 GP · 3y
TOI19.84––13.8619.84
PP TOI0.12––0.050.12
G2–––2
A16–––17
PTS18–––19
PPP0–––0
SOG65–––66
PIM16–––26
Hits35–––44
Blocks164–––198

Sample: 11 GP · 164 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)
214William Villeneuve-31
215Riley Stillman-31
216Jalen Chatfield-31
217Chris Tanev-31
218Nate Schmidt-33
219Zach Bogosian-33
220Ty Emberson-33
offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Complementary Defense
Same position, opposite profile — strong where Chris Tanev is weak or average, light where he’s strong
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
the profile below
vs Similar
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Coaching
2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice
Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change
Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
TOI19.84n/a19.84
5v5 TOI16.38n/a16.38
PP TOI0.12n/a0.12
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  8 · 3 · 0 · 0
TOI*
3-yr 19.8413.86Q1Q2Q3Q4
5v5 TOI
3-yr 16.3813.81Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP TOI
3-yr 0.120.05Q1Q2Q3Q4
*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.
By season — year over year
TOI
19.8422-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
5v5 TOI
16.3822-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
PP TOI
0.1222-2323-2424-2525-2626-27

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
SOG/602.71n/a2.64
G/600.09n/a0.09
iSH%3.33n/a3.33
ixG/60–n/a0.07
iCF/60–n/a6.44
iSCF/60–n/a1.33
iHDCF/60–n/a0.17
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  8 · 3 · 0 · 0
SOG/60
3-yr 2.643.26Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSH%
3-yr 3.330.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
ixG/60
3-yr 0.070.09Q1Q2Q3Q4
iCF/60
3-yr 6.448.69Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSCF/60
3-yr 1.331.09Q1Q2Q3Q4
iHDCF/60
3-yr 0.170.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
SOG/60
1.9522-2323-2424-2525-26
iSH%
5.1322-2323-2424-2525-26
ixG/60
0.0722-2323-2424-2525-26
iCF/60
5.6722-2323-2424-2525-26
iSCF/60
1.4722-2323-2424-2525-26
iHDCF/60
0.2922-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
G
222-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
SOG
6522-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextNo 2025-26 sample — goals/shots projected off the prior 3-yr profile, held flat.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
on-ice SH%8.76n/a8.76
IPP25.29n/a25.29
1A/600.25n/a0.26
2A/600.31n/a0.32
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  8 · 3 · 0 · 0
1A/60
3-yr 0.260.54Q1Q2Q3Q4
2A/60
3-yr 0.320.54Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
1A/60
0.2022-2323-2424-2525-26
2A/60
0.2422-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
A
1622-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
PTS
1822-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.8%, IPP 25.3%).
ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PP TOI0.12n/a0.12
PP iSH%0.00n/a0.00
PP SOG/601.71n/a2.39
PP ixG/60–n/a0.11
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  8 · 3 · 0 · 0
PP TOI/GP
3-yr 0.120.05Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP SOG/60
3-yr 2.390.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP ixG/60
3-yr 0.110.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PP TOI/GP
0.0522-2323-2424-2525-26
PP SOG/60
0.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
PP ixG/60
0.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PPP
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPG
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPA
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PIMs/600.64n/a1.11
Hits/601.45n/a1.81
Blks/604.88n/a5.96
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  8 · 3 · 0 · 0
PIMs/60
3-yr 1.110.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
Hits/60
3-yr 1.811.09Q1Q2Q3Q4
Blks/60
3-yr 5.963.26Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PIMs/60
1.0722-2323-2424-2525-26
Hits/60
0.9822-2323-2424-2525-26
Blks/60
6.3022-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PIM
1622-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
HITS
3522-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
BLK
16422-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.09/60 and 2nd-half 1.09 below the 1.81 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.45/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.81 3-yr mark.
RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.26/60 and 2nd-half 3.26 below the 5.96 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.88/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.96 3-yr mark.