🏒@HockeyBangers2026-27 projections

Overview

@HockeyBangers

2026-27 Projection

Ryan Johnson

BUF · Age 25.0 · 🇺🇸 USA · 6′0″, 170 lb · Draft 2019, 31st overall (BUF)
BUFteam
Dposition
294position rank
822skater rank
-65overall
-58offense
-7peripherals

Value over replacement, based on 82 games played.
Ideal for H2H 12-team banger category leagues, 16 roster spots.

Per 82 GP2026-27projection2025-26thinH225-26H13 GPPrev 341 GP · 1y
TOI13.8713.87
PP TOI0.050.05
G00
A1414
PTS1414
PPP00
SOG7070
PIM2424
Hits1616
Blocks7878

Sample: 3 GP · 26 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)
offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Complementary Defense
Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ryan Johnson is weak or average, light where he’s strong
  • Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
    fills: A, PPP, SOG
  • Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
    fills: SOG, A, PPP
  • Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
    fills: A, PPP, SOG
  • Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
    fills: A, PPP, SOG
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
the profile below
vs Similar
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Coaching
2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)
Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change
Metric26-27
proj
2025-26Prev 3Diff
TOI13.87n/a13.87
5v5 TOI13.35n/a13.35
PP TOI0.05n/a0.05
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  3 · 0 · 0 · 0
By season — year over year
TOI
13.8722-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
5v5 TOI
13.3522-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
PP TOI
0.0522-2323-2424-2525-2626-27

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj
2025-26Prev 3Diff
SOG/603.73n/a3.73
G/600.00n/a0.00
iSH%0.00n/a0.00
ixG/60n/a0.16
iCF/60n/a9.10
iSCF/60n/a2.30
iHDCF/60n/a0.66
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  3 · 0 · 0 · 0
SOG/60
3-yr 3.73Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSH%
3-yr 0.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
ixG/60
3-yr 0.16Q1Q2Q3Q4
iCF/60
3-yr 9.10Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSCF/60
3-yr 2.30Q1Q2Q3Q4
iHDCF/60
3-yr 0.66Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
SOG/60
3.7322-2323-2424-2525-26
iSH%
0.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
ixG/60
0.1622-2323-2424-2525-26
iCF/60
9.1022-2323-2424-2525-26
iSCF/60
2.3022-2323-2424-2525-26
iHDCF/60
0.6622-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
G
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
SOG
7022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextNo 2025-26 sample — goals/shots projected off the prior 3-yr profile, held flat.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj
2025-26Prev 3Diff
on-ice SH%8.36n/a8.36
IPP31.95n/a31.95
1A/600.44n/a0.44
2A/600.33n/a0.33
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  3 · 0 · 0 · 0
1A/60
3-yr 0.44Q1Q2Q3Q4
2A/60
3-yr 0.33Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
1A/60
0.4422-2323-2424-2525-26
2A/60
0.3322-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
A
1422-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
PTS
1422-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.4%, IPP 32.0%).
ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric26-27
proj
2025-26Prev 3Diff
PP TOI0.05n/a0.05
PP iSH%n/an/a
PP SOG/600.00n/a0.00
PP ixG/60n/a0.53
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  3 · 0 · 0 · 0
PP TOI/GP
3-yr 0.05Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP SOG/60
3-yr 0.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP ixG/60
3-yr 0.53Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PP TOI/GP
0.0522-2323-2424-2525-26
PP SOG/60
0.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
PP ixG/60
0.5322-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PPP
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPG
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPA
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj
2025-26Prev 3Diff
PIMs/601.32n/a1.32
Hits/600.66n/a0.66
Blks/604.06n/a4.06
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  3 · 0 · 0 · 0
PIMs/60
3-yr 1.32Q1Q2Q3Q4
Hits/60
3-yr 0.66Q1Q2Q3Q4
Blks/60
3-yr 4.06Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PIMs/60
1.3222-2323-2424-2525-26
Hits/60
0.6622-2323-2424-2525-26
Blks/60
4.0622-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PIM
2422-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
HITS
1622-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
BLK
7822-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
RiskBottom-of-league hits (3rd pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.
ContextBlocks role-stable at 4.06/60 (82nd pct league-wide) → 4.06 projected.