Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2623 GP	H23 GP	H120 GP	Prev 3176 GP · 3y
TOI	15.22	15.66	–	14.83	13.69
PP TOI	0.13	0.11	–	0.20	0.11
G	2	4	–	4	2
A	14	7	–	8	14
PTS	16	11	–	12	16
PPP	0	0	–	0	0
SOG	76	54	–	49	75
PIM	43	57	–	66	41
Hits	110	93	–	90	107
Blocks	84	128	–	129	68

Sample: 23 GP · 317 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

209Ilya Solovyov-29

210David Reinbacher-30

211Ryker Evans-30

212Joshua Mahura-30

213Keaton Middleton-30

214William Villeneuve-31

215Riley Stillman-31

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it down

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 34% below last season, 128 to 84.

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 37% below his 3-year rate last season (2.64 against 4.21).

Bottom of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 3th percentile league-wide (0.10).

Bottom of the league

1A/60

1A/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (0.00).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Blues79% match
shared: Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Stars78% match
shared: Hits
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Panthers78% match
shared: Hits
Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth78% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Joshua Mahura is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lane Lambert (SEA)

Last year: Lane Lambert full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.22	15.66	13.69	+14%
5v5 TOI	13.57	13.82	12.87	+7%
PP TOI	0.13	0.11	0.11	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 7 · 1 · 2

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.22: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.57: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.13: same coach (Lane Lambert) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.2) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.61	2.64	4.21	-37%
G/60	0.00	0.00	0.11	-100%
iSH%	1.75	0.00	2.50	-100%
ixG/60	–	0.10	0.18	-46%
iCF/60	–	7.55	9.77	-23%
iSCF/60	–	2.08	2.33	-11%
iHDCF/60	–	0.19	0.35	-45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 7 · 1 · 2

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 0.0% sits near the 2.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.10 (3rd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 37% (5v5 SOG/60 2.64 vs 4.21) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.94	12.38	8.32	+49%
IPP	21.61	14.39	33.39	-57%
1A/60	0.14	0.00	0.37	-100%
2A/60	0.38	0.38	0.37	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 7 · 1 · 2

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.4% vs a 8.3% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.13	0.11	0.11	+8%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.21	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 7 · 1 · 2

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Lane Lambert) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.2) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.34	3.02	2.01	+50%
Hits/60	5.42	4.91	5.80	-15%
Blks/60	4.08	4.53	3.50	+29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 7 · 1 · 2

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.91/60 (59th pct league-wide) → 5.42 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 5.58/60 and 2nd-half 4.88 vs a 4.53 season rate (3.50 3-yr) (89th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.08/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (3.02/60 (82nd pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.