Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 4 pace in the second half after 15 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 76% below where it started (18.65 in the first half, 4.55 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 54% below his 3-year rate last season (0.23 against 0.50).

Bottom of the league

Blks/60

Blks/60 sits in the 2th percentile league-wide (0.81).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres81% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets77% match
Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth75% match
Tyler SeguinC,RW · Dallas Stars74% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Calle Jarnkrok is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, SOG
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 3
fills: A, SOG, PIM
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: A, SOG
Connor BedardC · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 3
fills: A, SOG, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.97	11.84	14.75	-20%
5v5 TOI	9.34	9.26	11.43	-19%
PP TOI	0.32	0.24	1.21	-80%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 10 · 16 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.97: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 9.34: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.32: reverts toward the 3-yr 1.2

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.33	4.51	6.59	-32%
G/60	0.60	0.58	0.96	-40%
iSH%	13.88	12.86	14.62	-12%
ixG/60	–	0.36	0.77	-53%
iCF/60	–	7.99	11.97	-33%
iSCF/60	–	3.47	7.81	-56%
iHDCF/60	–	1.74	3.53	-51%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 10 · 16 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 12.9% sits near the 14.6% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.36 (34th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 32% (5v5 SOG/60 4.51 vs 6.59) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.42 (1st half) to 0.30 (2nd).

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.05	6.98	9.79	-29%
IPP	59.79	58.27	61.63	-5%
1A/60	0.35	0.23	0.50	-54%
2A/60	0.25	0.00	0.42	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 10 · 16 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.0%, IPP 58.3%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.32	0.24	1.21	-80%
PP iSH%	6.95	0.00	11.99	-100%
PP SOG/60	8.62	9.08	9.95	-9%
PP ixG/60	–	2.04	1.78	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 10 · 16 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.2→0.3 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 1.2) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 12.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.86	0.69	1.26	-45%
Hits/60	3.65	3.82	4.03	-5%
Blks/60	0.86	0.81	1.00	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 10 · 16 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.08/60 and 2nd-half 3.54 below the 3.82 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.65/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.03 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.44/60 and 2nd-half 0.82 below the 0.81 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.86/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.00 3-yr mark.